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☆ US factory orders fall 3.6% in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Autonomous robots assemble an X model SUV at the BMW manufacturing facility in Greer, South Carolina, U.S. November 4, 2019. Factory orders fell 3.6% after a downwardly revised 2.3% inSeptember, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. Orders for durable goods fell 5.4%, with orders for transportation equipment slumping 14.7%. Electrical equipment, appliances and components orders fell 1.1%. Shipments of manufactured goods fell 1.4%.

Persons: Charles Mostoller, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Chizu Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, U.S, Commerce, Reuters, Machinery, Manufacturing, Thomson Locations: Greer , South Carolina, U.S, Commerce Department's

"Monetary policy is in a good place for policymakers to assess incoming information on the economy and financial conditions," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday. The Fed has kept its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July, and after the last meeting over Oct. 31-Nov. 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he is not yet confident policy is restrictive enough. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a policy hawk like Mester, on Tuesday delivered a similar assessment. Indeed, Waller said, if the inflation decline continues for several more months, rate cuts could be in order to keep policy from becoming overly tight. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who has for months said the Fed policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% is high enough, said Wednesday he feels data backing that view is getting clearer.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Loretta Mester, Mester, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, I'm, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Raphael Bostic, we’ve, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Deepa Babington Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, Dallas Fed, Reuters, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: El Progreso, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,

☆ US annual home price growth at 6.1% in September, FHFA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. annual home price growth accelerated again in September, underscoring the rebound of the housing market as it entered the final quarter of the year, data showed on Tuesday. Home prices rose 6.1% on a year-over-year basis in September, up from an upwardly revised 5.8% increase in the prior month, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said. On a quarterly basis, annual house prices increased 5.5% between the third quarter of last year and the comparative period this year. The report also showed prices rose moderately on a month-over-month basis, in line with recent trends. Annual house prices rose the most in the New England and Middle Atlantic regions in August, with gains of 11.4% and 8.3%, respectively, the FHFA data showed.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve, Chicago, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New England, Atlantic, Detroit

☆ Fed's Bowman says she still expects another interest rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman poses at a conference on monetary policy at The Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, U.S., May 3, 2019. Earlier this month, the Fed kept its benchmark overnight lending rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the second consecutive policy meeting. However, Bowman has repeatedly been among a small minority of policymakers who have said they don't think the Fed's job is yet done. Likewise, some signs of interest rate insensitivity among businesses could dull the effects of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions on economic activity and inflation, Bowman said, and overall longer-term economic conditions might mean the Fed's policy rate may need to be higher than pre-pandemic norms. Earlier on Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is "increasingly confident" the central bank's current policy setting will prove enough to return inflation to the Fed's target.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Ann Saphir, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Hoover Institution, REUTES, Fed, Thomson Locations: Palo Alto , California, U.S, Salt Lake City , Utah

"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. Additional Fed rate increases remain a possibility if upcoming data includes an unexpected resurgence of price pressures, he said. But even Bowman, who like Waller is among the Fed's most hawkish officials, stopped short of outright calling for a further increase in the policy rate. New inflation data will be released on Thursday, and policymakers will also have a fresh monthly jobs report and other data in hand before they gather next month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Bond, Waller's, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Waller, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, American Enterprise Institute, Fed, Spelman College, Utah Bankers Association, Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta, Salt Lake City

☆ US mortgage interest rates fall to two-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A more timely mortgage tracker also saw the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fall to a two-month low. The third consecutive weekly decline in both gauges comes amid signals that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates further. The dip in mortgage rates meant more would-be purchasers. The MBA's Purchase Composite Index, a measure of all mortgage loan applications for purchase of a single family home, increased 3.9% from the prior week. Sellers locked into lower mortgage rates also continue to hold their homes, keeping housing inventory tight.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Sellers, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Chizu Nomiyama, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/Pool/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDUBLIN Nov 8 (Reuters) - A rise in geopolitical tensions across the world could aggravate already subdued growth in Europe and China and the spillover may alter the path of the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday. "We are not only watching subdued growth, we're watching the geopolitical tensions that we're all talking about, and that could change the outlook both in the United States and the global economy." Cook added that geopolitical tensions may in particular destabilize commodity markets and access to credit in the current higher interest rate environment. "Any shock could make the situation worse that we're already (in)... and could be destabilizing to commodity markets, could be destabilizing to the system of credit," Cook said. "More broadly, escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to lower economic activity and increased fragmentation of global trade flows and financial intermediation, raising financing and production costs and contributing to more sustained supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures," Cook said.

Persons: Lisa DeNell Cook, Ken Cedeno, Lisa Cook, Cook, We're, Padraic Halpin, Conor Humphries, Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Leslie Adler, Mark Potter Organizations: Governors, Federal Reserve System, Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, DUBLIN, Federal, Central Bank of Ireland, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Washington ,, Europe, China, U.S, Dublin, United States, Ukraine, Russia, East, San Francisco

"This was an outstanding quarter ... this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Fed. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward." It's clearly calming down," with recent employment gains more in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, Waller said. The Fed is in the process of weighing that and other data to determine whether to hike the benchmark policy rate again. However neither Goolsbee nor Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who spoke to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, ruled out further Fed rate increases.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Louis Fed, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael Derby, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, St, Ohio Bankers League, Fed, New York Fed, Atlanta, CNBC, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Bloomberg Television, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fed is making progress on inflation, Goolsbee says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Over the next couple of months, we might equal the fastest drop in inflation in the last century," Goolsbee said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "So we're making progress on the inflation rate. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Higher yields and more broadly tightening financial conditions help the Fed by tamping down growth and cooling inflation. If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, I've, Lorie Logan, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrew Cawthorne, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Dallas, Thomson Locations: U.S

In the United States, the manufacturing sector pulled out of a five-month contraction on a pickup in new orders, and services activity accelerated modestly amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. HEADACHE FOR THE ECBIn the euro zone, business activity drooped as demand fell in a broad-based downturn across the region, causing the bloc to enter the fourth quarter on the wrong foot and suggesting it may slip into recession. "The flash PMIs mark a poor start to October for the euro zone, especially after showing some early signs of recovery in September," said Rory Fennessy at Oxford Economics. Suggesting a recession is well underway in Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity contracted there for a fourth straight month as the downturn in manufacturing was matched by a renewed decline in services, its PMI showed. In France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, business activity remained in contraction territory in October, PMI data showed, improving just slightly from September's near three-year low.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Chris Williamson, Christine Lagarde's, Rory Fennessy, Williamson, Ajay Banga, Dan Burns, Jonathan Cable, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle, REUTERS, P Global, Composite, Federal, Commerce Department, Reuters, P, P Global Market Intelligence, P Global PMI, September's, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, PMI, European Union, Bank of, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dearborn , Michigan, U.S, United States, joblessness, Germany, Europe's, France, September's, Britain, Gaza, Ukraine

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says mild U.S. recession feasible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession is certainly feasible as the Federal Reserve's steep rate-hikes over the past year filters fully through the economy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday, as he again urged the central bank to be prudent on policy. "There is no way you can look at current conditions around the world and in the US and not think that some mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility," Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. He was responding to a question about a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession later this year. "The data show that and we've raised rates almost 500 basis points in a year," he added. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview, also on Friday, the Fed could "hit the mark and hold" with one more rate hike.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he's still waiting for inflation "to crack"
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Inflation may be falling but it is yet to do so at a rate commensurate with inflation falling back to the Fed's 2% goal, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. "I'm waiting for inflation to crack...It's moving in the right direction...but in the absence of a month or two months or three months with inflation at our target it's hard to make the case that we're compellingly headed there," Barkin said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. government posts $378 billion deficit in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Gary CameronApril 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. government recorded a $378-billion budget deficit in March as outlays outpaced revenues, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday. That compared to a budget deficit of $193 billion in the same month last year, according to the Treasury's monthly budget statement. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a $302 billion deficit for the month. When adjusted for calendar effects, the deficit for March was $305 billion compared with an adjusted deficit of $187 billion in March 2022. Unadjusted receipts last month totaled $313 billion, down 1% from $315 billion in March 2022, while unadjusted outlays were $691 billion, an increase of 36% from the same month a year earlier.

☆ Fed's Williams says interest rate path is data dependent
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 11 (Reuters) - The prospect of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate only once more and in a 25 basis point increment is a useful starting point but the central bank's policy path will depend on incoming data, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a 4.75%-5.00% range at that meeting. "We have to be driven by the data," Williams said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure is still running at more than twice that target rate. "So the real question to me is, we've gotten to restrictive (on policy), what's it going to take to be sufficiently restrictive?

☆ Fed should stick to raising rates while labor market strong, Bullard says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 6 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should stick to raising interest rates to lower inflation while the labor market remains strong, given the high probability recent financial stresses will continue to abate and absent a marked tightening of credit conditions, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday. Economic data since the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting has been mixed, with encouraging signs of a loosening in the labor market and a further abatement in high inflation tempered by both remaining too strong for comfort. The Labor Department's employment report for March is due to be released on Friday. Bullard said this week's better-than-expected report on labor market openings still showed a job market that remained very strong by historical standards. Investors are almost evenly divided as to whether the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May 2-3 meeting or proceed with a quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase.

They also now expect the Fed will start easing policy as early as July, cutting its benchmark rate to near 4% by the end of the year. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, also fell to its lowest level since May 2021 and data for January was revised lower to show 10.6 million job openings instead of the previously reported 10.8 million. "The U.S. labor market is definitively cooling off," said Indeed economist Nick Bunker, noting that job openings have now fallen by about 1.3 million in two months. Welcome relief on the job market front follows a key report last week that showed while inflation ebbed in February, it remained high enough to possibly compel the Fed to raise interest rates one more time this year. At their March policy meeting, most Fed policymakers signaled they expected to need to raise rates one more time, to 5.1%, and not to cut them until 2024.

"It was a quirky situation," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in comments to a St. Louis community group. 'FELT VERY STABLE'The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, its ninth straight increase. This wasn't a straightforward decision," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an interview with National Public Radio, a U.S. media outlet. But "that's a different issue than the macro policy issue that we were dealing with in terms of interest rates," Bostic said. So the conditions were right to do monetary policy the way we want to do monetary policy."

☆ Uncertainty reigns as Fed mulls whether to raise interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"I don't think the Fed has any good options here," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. "The risk is allowing inflation to become even more embedded versus the risk of aggravating a broader banking crisis." The investment bank then expects three more 25 basis point hikes in May, June, and July, with the policy rate peaking in the 5.25-5.5% range. "We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now." Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Uncertainty reigns as Fed considers interest rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. central bank will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday as policymakers consider whether still too-hot inflation merits an interest rate hike or whether turmoil in financial markets outstrips those concerns. "I don't think the Fed has any good options here," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. Prices of Fed funds futures reflected a roughly 70% probability of a quarter-percentage point rate hike on Monday versus about a 30% chance of no change, a slight firming in expectations compared to the end of last week. The tumult has occurred during the central bank's premeeting blackout period that prevents officials from offering public clarity on their assessment of the situation. The investment bank then expects three more 25 basis point hikes in May, June, and July, with the policy rate peaking in the 5.25-5.5% range.

☆ Fed rate hike campaign in question as bank stocks swoon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets now expect interest-rate cuts as soon as May or June, with the Fed policy rate seen ending the year a full percentage point lower than it is now. Trader bets and actual Fed policy decisions often diverge, and analysts caution against taking the market view as gospel. Interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated.”WILD SWINGSExpectations for the U.S. central bank’s next move have swung wildly in recent days. Now, with the banking crisis seemingly rekindled and banking stocks again under pressure, traders are looking for one more Fed rate hike if that, and then a string of interest-rate reductions, with the rate ending this year in a 3.5%-3.75% range. “It’s conceivable that we’ve seen the peak in market interest rates this cycle,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.

By May the benchmark rate is seen rising further to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. Until late last week financial markets had been pricing in a bigger half-point rate hike to stem persistently high inflation. Meanwhile the Labor Department's inflation report showed a 6% rise in the consumer price index last month from a year earlier. "The recent string of regional bank failures likely closed the door on a 50 (basis point) rate hike, but today's data suggests that the Fed is going to remain on-track for a 25 (basis point) hike on March 22." Fed policymakers will publish their own rate path expectations next week.

☆ U.S. Federal Home Loan Banks stock up on cash amid 'heightened demand'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Home Loan Banks beefed up their lending warchests on Monday to provide more liquidity to banks amid continued higher-than-usual demand for funds as the fallout from the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank reverberates through medium- and smaller-size financial institutions. The FHL Bank system raised $88.73 billion by selling short-term notes with maturities from three months to one year on Monday afternoon, according to Informa Global Markets, a provider of syndicated bond data. "As members react to a volatile market and seek stable funding, the Federal Home Loan Banks collectively continue to see heightened demand for our advances. Credit extended to commercial banks by the FHL banks more than doubled last year to more than $800 billion by year end. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System is strong, stable and stands ready to serve our members," Donovan added.

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% in February as more workers entered the labor force, and wage gains slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in January, the Labor Department's report showed. "This report screams soft landing and looks to be a pretty good one for the Fed," said Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights. After the report, futures tied to the Fed policy rate pointed to a quarter-point rate hike as the most likely outcome of the central bank's meeting this month. Traders also slashed expectations for the Fed to ultimately raise rates any higher than 5.5%. "However, the February CPI report will also weigh heavily in the Fed’s deliberations of whether to raise rates 25bps or 50bps.

"We have not made any decision," Powell said, but will be looking closely at upcoming jobs data on Friday and inflation data next week in deciding whether rate hikes need to shift back into a higher gear. Recent inflation data was worse than expected, and revisions to prior months showed the Fed had made less progress than expected in returning inflation to its 2% target from current levels that are more than double that. At the margins, however, some of the data did move in ways consistent with the softer job market the Fed hopes will develop. In their last set of projections, in mid-December, the median estimate of the high point of the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate was between 5.00% and 5.25%, versus the current 4.50%-4.75% range. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Writing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ US businesses see moderation in inflation ahead, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But after some softening late last year, the economy has since rebounded and price increases have reaccelerated. But there were also hopeful signs, with supply chains easing further and price increases moderating in many of the Fed's regional districts. "Looking ahead, contacts expected price increases to continue to moderate over the year," the report said. That said, inflation remained "widespread" according to the survey, and in the labor market "finding workers with desired skills or experience remained challenging." Fed policymakers have made clear that there would have to be some easing in labor market shortages in order for wage pressures to ease.

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